Pancreas
Gastroenterology. 2022;162(1):122–34
Global incidence of acute pancreatitis is increasing over time: A systematic review and meta-analysis
Background and aims: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common disease with significant associated morbidity and mortality. The authors performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based studies to explore the changing temporal trends of AP incidence globally.
Methods: They performed a systematic literature search to identify population-based studies reporting the annual incidence of AP. Abstracts were assessed independently to identify applicable articles for full-text review and data extraction. Join point temporal trend analyses were performed to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The AAPCs were pooled in a meta-analysis to capture the overall and regional trends in AP incidence over time. Temporal data were summarized in a static map and an interactive, web-based map.
Results: 44 studies reported the temporal incidence of AP (online interactive map: https://kaplan-acute-pancreatitis-ucalgary.hub.arcgis.com/). The incidence of AP has increased from 1961 to 2016 (AAPC, 3.07%; 95% CI: 2.30–3.84%; n = 34). Increasing incidence was observed in North America (AAPC, 3.67%; 95% CI: 2.76–4.57%; n = 4) and Europe (AAPC, 2.77%; 95% CI: 1.91–3.63%; n = 23). The incidence of AP was stable in Asia (AAPC, -0.28%; 95% CI: -5.03–4.47%; n = 4).
Conclusions: This meta-analysis provides a comprehensive overview of the global incidence of acute pancreatitis (AP) over the last 56 years and demonstrates a steadily rising incidence over time in most countries of the Western world. More studies are needed to better define the changing incidence of AP in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.