Pancreas
Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2023;21(7):1792–801.e3
Clinical outcomes of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms with dilatation of the main pancreatic duct
Background and aims: Dilatation of the main pancreatic duct (MPD) has been a surgical indication for intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs). Few studies have investigated long-term outcomes of IPMNs with MPD dilatation.
Methods: Among 3610 patients diagnosed with pancreatic cysts between 1994 and 2021, the authors identified 2829 IPMN patients, including 282 patients with MPD ≥ 5 mm, and examined short-term (≤ 6 months) and long-term risks of pancreatic carcinoma. Utilizing competing risks proportional hazards models, they estimated subdistribution hazard ratios for incidence of pancreatic carcinoma with adjustment for potential confounders.
Results: In analyses of short-term outcomes of the 282 patients with MPD dilatation, 72 patients (26%) were diagnosed with pancreatic carcinoma based on surgical or non-surgical exploration. During long-term follow-up of 168 patients, 24 patients (14%) diagnosed with pancreatic carcinoma (18 with IPMN-derived carcinoma and 6 with concomitant ductal adenocarcinoma) were documented. The patients with the MPD = 5–9.9 mm had cumulative incidence rates of pancreatic carcinoma diagnosis of 8.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.3–13.5%) and 10.0% (95% CI: 5.5–15.9%) at 2 and 5 years, respectively; and the patients with the MPD ≥ 10 mm had the corresponding rates of 16.0% (95% CI: 3.6–36.5%) and 33.3% (95% CI: 10.3–58.8%). The multivariable subdistribution hazard ratios were 2.78 (95% CI: 1.57–4.90) and 7.00 (95% CI: 2.58–19.0) for the MPD = 5–9.9 mm and ≥ 10 mm (vs. < 5 mm), respectively.
Conclusions: Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) with main pancreatic duct (MPD) dilatation at baseline were associated with higher prevalence and incidence of pancreatic carcinoma compared with IPMNs with no MPD dilatation.