Pancreas
United European Gastroenterol J. 2023;11(7):601–11
The additive value of CA19.9 monitoring in a pancreatic cyst surveillance program
Background: Surveillance of pancreatic cysts focuses on the detection of (mostly morphologic) features warranting surgery. European guidelines consider elevated CA19.9 as a relative indication for surgery. The authors aimed to evaluate the role of CA19.9 monitoring for early detection and management in a cyst surveillance population.
Methods: The PACYFIC-registry is a prospective collaboration that investigates the yield of pancreatic cyst surveillance performed at the discretion of the treating physician. Participants for whom at least 1 serum CA19.9 value was determined by a minimum follow-up of 12 months were included.
Results: Of 1865 PACYFIC participants, 685 met the inclusion criteria for this study (mean age, 67 years [standard deviation 10]; 61% female). During a median follow-up of 25 months (interquartile range [IQR], 24, 1966 visits), 29 participants developed high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or pancreatic cancer. At baseline, CA19.9 ranged from 1 to 591 kU/l (median 10 kU/l [IQR, 14]), and was elevated (≥ 37 kU/l) in 64 participants (9%). During 191 of 1966 visits (10%), an elevated CA19.9 was detected, and these visits more often led to an intensified follow-up (42%) than those without an elevated CA19.9 (27%; p < 0.001). An elevated CA19.9 was the sole reason for surgery in 5 participants with benign disease (10%). The baseline CA19.9 value was (as continuous or dichotomous variable at the 37 kU/l threshold) not independently associated with HGD or pancreatic cancer development, whilst a CA19.9 of ≥ 133 kU/l was (hazard ratio = 3.8, 95% confidence interval: 1.1–13, p = 0.03).
Conclusions: In this pancreatic cyst surveillance cohort, CA19.9 monitoring caused substantial harm by shortening surveillance intervals (and performance of unnecessary surgery). The current CA19.9 cut-off was not predictive of high-grade dysplasia and pancreatic cancer, whereas a higher cut-off may decrease false-positive values. The role of CA19.9 monitoring should be critically appraised prior to implementation in surveillance programs and guidelines.
DOI: 10.1002/ueg2.12422